With news outlets across the country warning of a looming economic recession in the coming years, business students and faculty offer their views on the country’s financial future.
While there is no universal agreement on what constitutes a recession, there is a general consensus, said Steve Agee, dean and professor at the Meinders School of Business. A recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the economy. If the Gross Domestic Product goes down over the course of six months (consisting of two three-month quarters), the economy enters a recession.
The last recession in the U.S. was the Great Recession, which lasted from around 2008 to 2009.
“That was a monstrous time period, the closest thing to the 1930s Great Depression we’ve ever had,” Agee said.
There are too many variables at play to make a certain prediction, Agee said. Some indicators, such as recent economic growth, support the predictions that there won’t be a recession. Others, such as the United States’ ongoing trade war with China, support predictions of an upcoming recession, he said. However, even if a recession does occur in the next few years, Agee said it won’t be nearly as bad as the Great Recession that occurred in 2008.
Eduardo Lima, adult degree completion program senior, said the likelihood of a current recession is strong.
“I think it’s very likely that we’re in a recession right now, and we just don’t know it. We won’t know it until it’s in hindsight,” Lima said.
An inverted yield curve which preceded the last seven recessions has already occurred, Lima said. Additionally, interest rates have dropped twice in the last quarter, and Lima said there’s a 75% chance they’ll drop again by the next quarter.
Lima said that the public sentiment has also shifted, and people are already in the mindset of a recession. He believes Meinders School of Business has prepared its students well for a recession after their studies.
“I’ll go so far as to praise the school and say that it actually provides its graduates with the skills that will allow them to be more attractive to employers during a recession. I think that the diverse skill set of the Meinders School of Business students allows them to be strategically positioned in such a scenario,” said Lima.
Agee said he has some advice for all students graduating in the upcoming years.
“Think about your degree and major, think about what opportunities are out in the workforce that pertain to your major, and if there are additional subjects of minors that you could take on in addition to your degree program, you should consider it,” he said.
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